Advanced NFL Stats is a website dedicated to the analysis of the National Football League using mathematical and statistical methods.[1] The site's lead author is noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke.[2][3][4] Burke is a regular contributor to the New York Times NFL coverage,[5][6] the Washington Post's Redskins coverage,[7] and supplies research for other notable publications and writers.[8]

Advanced NFL Stats features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced NFL Stats uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.

Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness,[9] play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft.

The site has pioneered other analytical concepts such as Air Yards, which is the distance forward of the line of scrimmage that a pass travels. It removes the contribution of Yards After Catch (YAC) run by a receiver.

Advanced NFL Stats also features a catalog of unique individual player stats. Each player's contribution toward his team's wins, known as Win Probability Added (WPA), is available for each season since 2000. Expected Points Added (EPA), success rate (SR), and many other innovative metrics are available.

During the NFL off-season, Burke has posted original research related to other North American professional sports leagues.[10]

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External linksEdit


  1. Monkovic, Toni. "Q&A With Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats". Retrieved 2009-01-17.
  2. Kilgore, Adam (2009-11-17). "Belichick Had the Numbers on His Side". The Boston Globe. Archived from the original on 21 January 2010. Retrieved 2010-03-08.
  3. "Houston Chronicle-'Advanced NFL Stats' sums up the Texans season". Archived from the original on 1 January 2009. Retrieved 2009-01-17.
  4. Bialik, Carl (2008-11-18). "Wall Street Journal-How Unlikely Was the Historic 11-10 Score?". Archived from the original on 1 January 2009. Retrieved 2009-01-17.
  5. "Brian Burke - New York Times Fifth Down". Archived from the original on 26 February 2010. Retrieved 2010-03-08.
  6. Burke, Brian (2010-02-09). "Saints’ Risky Decisions Were Both Calculated and Crucial". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-03-08.
  7. "Washington Post Redskins Insider". Retrieved 2010-11-17.
  8. "Peter King Monday Morning QB". 2010-02-01. Archived from the original on 4 February 2010. Retrieved 2010-03-08.
  9. Monkovic, Toni (2008-12-24). "New York Times-Jets Were One of the Luckiest Teams". Archived from the original on 29 January 2009. Retrieved 2009-01-17.
  10. Bialik, Carl (2009-04-27). "The Wall Street Journal, "The Count: Refining the Concept of a Must-Win Game"". Retrieved 2009-04-287.
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